Market Analysis - 04.20.2020

We provide key support and resistance levels for the following futures products daily:

Crude Oil (/CL)

S&P 500 (/ES)

NASDAQ (/NQ)

Natural Gas (/NG)

Euro (/6E)

British Pound (/6B)

 

CRUDE OIL


Key Support Levels:

21.01

21.56

21.94

22 - GEX


Key Resistance Levels:

23.02

25.49

26.75

27 - GEX

28.24


Auction Profile:

Down auction


/CL futures are trading far below the previous value area. Clearly, sellers are in control and downside risk is elevated. Strong support exists between 21.56 and 21.94.

 

S&P 500


Key Support Levels:

2699.75

2750 - GEX

2750.25

2810.50


Key Resistance Levels:

2840 - GEX

2846.75

2883.50


Auction Profile:

Range bound


/ES futures are trading below the previous value area near strong support at 2810.50. Downside risk is elevated today, barring any significant news regarding economic stimulus.

 

NATURAL GAS


Key Support Levels:

1.50 - GEX

1.564

1.613

1.697


Key Resistance Levels:

1.719

1.75 - GEX

1.757

1.81

1.831

1.86


Auction Profile:

Up auction


/NG futures are trading far below the previous value area indicating strong selling pressure. Price was rejected strongly on Friday and overnight around 1.81, which will be a key resistance level going forward. Downside risk is elevated today, with 1.697 providing strong support.

 

NASDAQ


Key Support Levels:

8374.50

8600 - GEX

8621.50


Key Resistance Levels:

8750 - GEX

8841.50

8963


Auction Profile:

Up auction


/NQ futures are trading in a narrow range in the center of Friday's value area. This indicates low conviction from both buyers and sellers. Strong support exists at 8621.50 and strong resistance at 8841.50. Most likely scenario is a range day, with downside risk elevated.

 

EURO


Key Support Levels:

1.08 - GEX

1.08081

1.08319


Key Resistance Levels:

1.08726

1.09113

1.09425

1.10041

1.10482

1.11 - GEX


Auction Profile:

Range bound


/6E futures are trading in the center of the previous value area indicating little pressure from buyers or sellers. Strong resistance at 1.09113 has kept price down since Thursday of last week. Downside risk remains elevated today.

 

BRITISH POUND


Key Support Levels:

1.222

1.2293

1.2361

1.245 - GEX

1.2472


Key Resistance Levels:

1.2544

1.264

1.27 - GEX


Auction Profile:

Range bound


/6B futures are trading below the previous value area indicating sellers are more in control. Downside risk is elevated, as strong resistance remains above price around 1.2544.

 

FINAL THOUGHTS


/VX futures remain in the mid 30s indicating volatility is slowly leaving the market. Gamma has dropped significantly following OPEX but is still slightly positive more volatility in /ES price action today. DIX dropped significantly on Friday, as well, showing institutions slowed their buying. Even though volatility has decreased currently, we still recommend keeping smaller contract size and using tighter stops. The economic recovery following this pandemic will likely be slow, and there may be a second wave of infections. Keep your expectations realistic.

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