Market Analysis - 04.17.2020

We provide key support and resistance levels for the following futures products daily:

Crude Oil (/CL)

S&P 500 (/ES)

NASDAQ (/NQ)

Natural Gas (/NG)

Euro (/6E)

British Pound (/6B)

 

CRUDE OIL


Key Support Levels:

21.01

21.56

21.94

23.02

24 - GEX


Key Resistance Levels:

25.49

26.75

27.50 - GEX

28.24


Auction Profile:

Up auction


/CL futures gapped up overnight and have been trading lower since. While gapping up is a strong bullish signal, the reaction following the gap indicates sellers have entered the market. Expect elevated downside risk today.

 

S&P 500


Key Support Levels:

2750.25

2810.50

2846.75

2850 - GEX


Key Resistance Levels:

2883.50

2900 - GEX


Auction Profile:

Up auction


/ES futures gapped up overnight and are trading in a narrow range. While the gap up is indicating a strong buyer presence, the narrow range illustrates a lack of conviction from both buyers and sellers currently. Upside risk is elevated.

 

NATURAL GAS


Key Support Levels:

1.50 - GEX

1.564

1.613

1.697

1.719


Key Resistance Levels:

1.757

1.81

1.831

1.86

2 - GEX


Auction Profile:

Up auction


/NG futures are trading far above the previous value area with strong buyer presence remaining in the contracts. Upside risk is elevated, with strong resistance coming in around 1.757.

 

NASDAQ


Key Support Levels:

8374.50

8621.50

8841.50

8850 - GEX


Key Resistance Levels:

8900 - GEX

8963


Auction Profile:

Up auction


/NQ futures have gapped up slightly overnight and are now trading in a vary narrow range. This indicates a lack of conviction from buyers and sellers. Upside risk is elevated.

 

EURO


Key Support Levels:

1.08081

1.08319

1.085 - GEX

1.08726


Key Resistance Levels:

1.09113

1.09425

1.10041

1.10482

1.12 - GEX


Auction Profile:

Down auction


/6E futures are trading in the lower section of the previous value area indicating increasing seller support. Downside risk is elevated today.

 

BRITISH POUND


Key Support Levels:

1.222

1.2293

1.2361

1.24 - GEX

1.2472


Key Resistance Levels:

1.2544

1.264

1.27 - GEX


Auction Profile:

Down auction


/6B futures are trading within the previous value area indicating a lack of conviction from both sellers and buyers. Downside risk remains elevated.

 

FINAL THOUGHTS


/VX futures have dropped into the mid 30s indicating volatility is slowly leaving the market. Gamma is still largely positive and rising forecasting less volatility in /ES price action today. DIX remains elevated showing large institutional buying in the previous session. Even though volatility has decreased currently, we still recommend keeping smaller contract size and using tighter stops. The economic recovery following this pandemic will likely be slow, and there may be a second wave of infections. Keep your expectations realistic.

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