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Market Analysis - 04.08.2020

We provide key support and resistance levels for the following futures products daily:

Crude Oil (/CL)

S&P 500 (/ES)

NASDAQ (/NQ)

Natural Gas (/NG)

Euro (/6E)

British Pound (/6B)

 

CRUDE OIL


Key Support Levels:

22.39

23.25

24 - GEX

25.10

26.05


Key Resistance Levels:

27.45

28.28

29.43

30 - GEX


Auction Profile:

Range bound


/CL futures are trading far below yesterday's value area as US Dept of Energy insists there will be no production cuts in US oil, other than market created supply changes. Downside risk remains elevated. As the contracts fell below previous support between 25.10 and 26.05, look for that region to become strong resistance. Expect these futures to trade between 22.39 and 25.10 today.

 

S&P 500


Key Support Levels:

2591.75

2619

2650 - GEX

2658.75


Key Resistance Levels:

2694.25

2729.50

2750 - GEX

2782.50

2815


Auction Profile:

Range bound


/ES futures are trading in the lower half of the previous value area. Contracts are within a lower volume node currently and the most likely scenario is a continued downward move towards 2554. Expect strong resistance to remain around 2694.25.

 

NATURAL GAS


Key Support Levels:

1.75 - GEX

1.761

1.778

1.802

1.821

1.841


Key Resistance Levels:

1.884

1.918

1.966

1.995

2 - GEX


Auction Profile:

Up auction


/NG futures once again moved strongly upward yesterday with resistance coming in around 1.918 overnight. Current value area is still completely above the previous one, indicating buyers are still in control. However, 1.884 to 1.918 is a low volume area which could continue to provide strong resistance. Upside risk is still elevated, but contracts will need to move strongly above 1.918 to maintain upward momentum.

 

NASDAQ


Key Support Levels:

7869

8000 - GEX

8078.25


Key Resistance Levels:

8150 - GEX

8168.25

8262

8410


Auction Profile:

Range bound


/NQ futures are trading in a range in the lower portion of the previous value area. With support again established around 8000. Look for contracts to remain between 8000 and 8262 today.

 

EURO


Key Support Levels:

1.08151

1.085 - GEX

1.0858

1.0889


Key Resistance Levels:

1.09355

1.09751

1.10

1.10699

1.12 - GEX


Auction Profile:

Range bound


/6E futures are trading in a narrow range in the lower section of the previous value area. Strong resistance remains around 1.09355. Expect contracts to trade below that point and most likely remain above 1.0858.

 

BRITISH POUND


Key Support Levels:

1.2027

1.2173

1.22 - GEX

1.2239

1.2306


Key Resistance Levels:

1.2389

1.2446

1.2551

1.26 - GEX

1.2636


Auction Profile:

Range bound


/6B futures are trading in a narrow range within the previous value area. This indicates little conviction from buyers and sellers. This very large volume node that has formed between 1.2239 and 1.2446 will continue to contain the majority of the price action until a strong seller or buyer presence comes in to push price below or above this region.

 

FINAL THOUGHTS


/VX futures are still above 40, indicating volatility remains elevated. Gamma has remained positive forecasting stickiness to /ES price action. DIX has risen into the elevated range indicating that institutional investors increased buying activity yesterday. While elevated volatility remains, continue to use lower leverage and a stop loss.

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